Meanwhile, in Iran.....

Protests denouncing the contested results of the June elections in Iran, and the legitimacy of president Ahmadinejad and "supreme leader" Khamenei, have exploded today.  This is mainly because of today's significance -- the Day of Ashura, an important holy day in Shia Islam (Iran's state religion) commemorating the death of the prophet Muhammad's grandson, as well as seven days after the death of Grand Ayatollah Hussein Ali Montazeri, a key supporter of the "Green Revolution," the name given to the current opposition protests.  The most significant event to come out of today's protests is the death of the nephew of opposition leader Mir Hussein Mousavi.  Now that the Basij and other government-supported anti-riot police have resorted to killing family members of the opposition -- on a significant day of mourning, no less -- and that the protesters have now begun to resort to fighting back (while still keeping their demonstrations as peaceful as possible), it's hard to determine what comes next.

"The day's events will significantly worsen the confrontation, particularly if the opposition is right that several protesters were shot dead. But neither side has a clear strategy of what to do next. The opposition is leaderless. The government is still pretending there are just a handful of troublemakers. From day to day, it is not clear how the crisis will develop." -- Jon Leyne, BBC News
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8431523.stm

"The significance of this day, Ashura, the day Khomeini regarded as the turning point against the Shah, cannot be under-estimated. Its symbolic power in Shia Islam, its themes of resistance to tyranny to the last drop of blood, its fusion of religious mourning and political revolt: this makes it lethal to the fascist thugs who dropped any pretense of ruling by even tacit consent last June.

We cannot know yet, but this might be it: the pivot on which our collective future hangs."  -- Andrew Sullivan
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/12/beyond-tehran.html

"A moment to savor: the marching crowd manages to turn back the regime's thugs, and as a riot cop helmet is grabbed, a roar of excitement spills out of the crowd.

I just can't help but hear the confidence, the joy mixed with rage, in the voices of the people on the streets. One woman in her car is grinning widely as she passes the demo. Even in the midst of this carnage, they have the knowledge that history will acknowledge them, that any victory raw violence may have, it is Pyrrhic. But I also get a sense - totally subjective and maybe my own wishful thinking - that the confidence comes from a sense that they are winning this standoff, that today has rekindled into an even stronger flame, the sense that Iran's people remain sovereign in their own land, that they have not been intimidated, and that they know they will soon win.
[...]
And note how critical it is that Obama's reticence removes from Ahmadinejad this convenient weapon of demonizing the protests as pawns of the Great Satan. The neoconservatives still seem to think this struggle is all about them. But in fact, it is all about the Iranian people's utter independence of them and us and anyone but themselves. 

And that's what makes this so powerful." -- Andrew Sullivan
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/12/turning-back-the-baseej.html

"If you are a regime like Khamenei's, you never want things to degenerate to this point: when you are actually murdering the families of the election winners in the streets in the face of massive violence. It speaks to me of desperation, of a failure to get a grip on any kind of authority after the fatal June elections. And so the regime increasingly has to wage war on its own people to survive." -- Andrew Sullivan
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/12/is-this-mousavis-nephew.html

"As numerous videos have now shown, protesters been have directly confronting security forces in the streets of Tehran today. In many cases, cornered Revolutionary Guard or Basij are disarmed and stripped before they are released. As this uprising grows more radical, one has to wonder the fate of those arms. As those who were alive for or have studied the events of 1979 know, the moment when mobs began raiding military garrisons was a turning point in the revolution. It was not long after that the army stood down and the revolution became a reality." -- "The Newest Deal"
http://www.thenewestdeal.org/2009/12/live-ashura-updates.html

"Those benefitting from the Shah's policies and rule were the middle, upper-middle and the rich classes. But they had no emotional or ideological commitment to the royal line or the Shah. More still, they all abandoned the country (sucking cash out as fast as they could) as soon as they saw the tide turning. Today, the poorer urban, lower-middle and rural classes have a deep emotional and economic commitment to the right of the regime. They will not abandon the Revolution and the legacy of Khomeini and they do not seem to have any sympathy for the urban youth and their desire for more individual freedoms.

I agree that the regime is pretty hobbled and delegitimated after June and that this round of protest and violence bodes awfully poorly for the regime. But even if Ahmadinejad is, somehow, forced to step down, even if Khamenei is removed by Rafsanjani's maneuvering in Qom, and even if, and this is a pipe dream, Tehran falls because the Rev Guard and police refuse to shoot at the protesters, the country will not follow as a whole. At best, I think, we get a political solution (in which Rafsanjani makes out very well), and a more liberal, but also rhetorically anti-US, leadership replaces the current one. They would have to be Anti-US and for Nuclear power to win over enough popular support and not look like imperial tools." -- anonymous
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2009/12/why-this-is-not-like-1979.html

"The regime seems intent on continuing to dig its own grave. With at least 10 protesters killed -- including the nephew of a former Prime Minsiter -- on one of the holiest days in Shia Islam and by a supposed Shia theocracy, rage towards the Islamic Republic is understandably turning very raw. Past all the amazing things that were captured on the footage that leaked out of Iran today, perhaps what was most interesting is what was missing: any mention of Ahmadinejad. The abundance and veracity of anti-Khameini chants on Ashura should not be overlooked. The Supreme Leader (with the doctrine of velayat-eh faqih which vests him with power) has become public enemy number-one." -- "The Newest Deal"
http://www.thenewestdeal.org/2009/12/live-ashura-updates.html

For more information:
Andrew Sullivan @ The Atlantic live-blog
The Newest Deal live-blog
Tehran Bureau @ PBS
Enduring American live-blog
Daily Nite Owl live-blog
Iran News Now live-blog
The Lede @ The New York Times live-blog
Persian2English live-blog
Revolutionary Road live-blog
National Iranian-American Council blog entry
BBC: "Iran protesters killed, including Mousavi's nephew" (post on ontd_political with pictures)
CNN: "Deaths reported in Iran clashes"
Huffington Post: "Iran Protests Turn Violent, Police Fire At Anti-Government Demonstrators, Kill At Least Four"
Guardian: "Tehran police shoot dead four protesters, reports say"
London Times: "Mir Hussein Mousavi's nephew 'killed' in Tehran clashes"
New York Times: "Iran militia halts former president's speech"
Los Angeles Times: "Deaths reported amid chaos and violence in Iran"
AlertNet: "Iran website says police refuse orders to shoot"
Reuters: "White House condemns 'unjust' actions in Iran"
Though-provoking op-ed: "An open letter to Charles Krauthammer"
Pictures of today's protests
Twitter: @madyar

Warning: a lot of the content in these links, especially the live-blogs, are extremely graphic in nature and are NSFW.  Also, it's difficult to confirm authoritatively whether or not the pictures and videos coming out of Iran right now are actually from the most recent protests (even though, with the leaves off the trees and the protesters wearing coats, it's hard to say they aren't), so unless they are officially confirmed, take all of it with a grain of salt.